Nov 02 2009
When Does Winter Start?
It’s approaching that time of year again when people start asking the question, “When does winter start?” The answer for 2009 is December 21. However, the real underlying question that outdoors enthusiasts are asking is when do winter activities start? There are certainly a lot of people who dread the snow storms, snowblowing, shoveling and other chores associated with winter’s start, but there are just as many (if not more) people who look forward to the very first snow so that they can pull out the snowshoes, skiis, sleds, snowmobiles and all of the other outdoor gear that you love to enjoy when the snow is powdery and in great supply.
In this post I’m going to explore what climatologists are saying you can expect for the winter season this year. This prediction will include average temps, areas of the world where climate change will be most drastic, and of course where you’ll be able to find most of the snow!
When Does Winter Start? When the Snow Flies.
The first day of winter for the next few years falls on the official calendar date of December 21, except for 2011 when it’s going to fall on December 22. Setting the calendar aside, what are climatologists saying that outdoor enthusiasts can expect for the approaching winter season? The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA), the leading U.S. Department of Commerce source for climate information, predicts that El Nino is, once again, going to be a significant factor in winter weather. The NOAA predicts warmer ocean water in the Pacific which will, in effect, strengthen the jetstream and therefore strengthening winter storms.
Image Credit: NOAA
- Western/Central U.S. - Warmer than average temperatures
- Southeast/Mid-Atlantic - Colder than average temperatures
- Southern Border States - Above-average precipitation
- Pacific Northwest - Drier than average
- Northeast - No significant predictions either way due to unpredictable short term climate factors
- Alaska - Warmer than average
- Hawaii - Colder than average
For those of you looking for snow, the predictions above don’t really offer much insight. The areas of the country with higher precipitation will likely be in the form of cold rain, although according to the NOAA the Northeast U.S. may have it’s usual unpredictable weather - which means the usual occasional heavy snowstorm. This information is presented in report format at the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
The Farmer’s Almanac Has 80 Percent Accuracy
Since the national climatologists seem to have a real fear of making snowfall predictions, in particular in the Northeast, it’s time to turn toward the good old Farmer’s Almanac, which is well known for it’s 80 percent accuracy in predicting upcoming weather conditions. In fact, the Almanac website actually offers a very cool online tool where you can type in a location and it’ll give you weather predictions for your area. When I typed in “Portland, ME” for long term winter predictions for 2010, I received the following results.
While the Almanac predicts a low overall snowfall for 2009 to 2010, amazingly the Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts the following concerning when the first snowfall will take place in the Northeast:
“Watch for a snowstorm around Thanksgiving, with other snowy periods in mid- and late December and mid- and late January.”
In other words, the Almanac predicts the first Northeast snowstorm in barely two weeks from now, earlier than the first storm in at least the last few years. Despite the fact that the Almanac predicts less snowfall in the Northeast overall, this early first snowfall is a very good sign for skiers and snow-shoe enthusiasts. Obviously outdoor winter camping won’t be a difficult during the periodic warm weather, although the Almanac (and the NOAA) does predict bursts of cold weather. In other words - it’s not looking good for those of you who are anxiously looking forward to the snow, but you can take solace in the fact that at least in the Northeast the whether is so unpredictable that despite all predictions the entire region could be blanketed with a nice thick blanket of powdery show. However, according to all predictions, the rest of the country is certainly in for a very unusual winter. So, when does winter start this year? December 21. When will it snow? According to the Farmer’s Almanac, it’ll be a white Thanksgiving in the Northeast this year.
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